Atlanta Sports Cards Presents: “The State of the Hobby Address, Sunday August 28th, 2011″

ASC.com is the only retail site where not only can you get whatever wax you could want, and sometimes incredible memoribila, and also be treated like you’re the most important customer in the world, and at the same time, know that the site owner has the cojones to write reviews and recommnedations, good or bad, for the exact product we have in stock!  Some rival sites will post a message board, but it is treated as completely independent from the company owners.  Many of you may say, “Jamie, you are just a glorified Message Board blog writer!” I disagree wholeheartedly.  This last year writing for Josh at ASC was not an overnight event that happened one day.  It has evolved into a team effort resulting in a blog that has proved it has some of the most important, behind the scenes information of any blog on the ‘net.  The response we get from Facebook is proof positive.  But, because I am lucky enough to be able to pick ASC owner Josh P’s brain for hours on end sometimes, I am able to convey to the reader what I see and relate it to my 25 years in the hobby and also what Josh sees. Which is like seeing behind the Wizard of Oz’ curtain. 

Personally, I check this blog right away when I sign on….only after a) I have checked the Baseball America Hot Sheet:(http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-hot-sheet/2011/2612257.html) and the chat that accompanies it (the last one was published this last Friday afternoon as the minor league season winds down), and b) Kevin Goldstein’s daily minor league recaps, and on Mondays, his Monday Morning “Ten Pack.”  But, like many outlets, “the best things in life are free” does not ring true over at Baseball Prospectus.com, as I spend $100 a year just to read Mr. Goldstein’s ruminations.  But to me they’re well worth it.  Baseball America is free only for about 10% of their content, so instead of spending good money to read “okay” articles (when Kevin Goldstein, the Editor-In-Chief, left in 2007/2008, BA.com got markedly worse, which makes sense to me as a fellow writer, as its all about the specific people writing on the website.  Kevin brought a TON of readers to Baseball Prospectus when he left Baseball America), I only use their free parts (at Baseball America), which luckily includes the weekly Hot Sheet.  Both websites will be out of season in the next 7 days. 

So, will Atlanta Sports Cards’ blog, which concentrated on baseball in particular these last 6 months, go out of season??  Not a chance!!  The new hot sheet here at Atlantasportscards.com has been unveiled and now includes the top moving Ebay individual cards of any sport that is currently in season.  So you will notice that Football Cards have been added to the most recent Top 20: http://atlantasportscards.com/blog/2011/08/25/atlanta-sports-cards-presents-brand-new-weekly-hobby-hot-sheet-top-20-cards/

You will notice, because baseball now extends into November, and Winter Leagues/The Arizona Fall League and offeseason moves keep plenty of “Hot Stove” action on baseball cards, baseball will always chart on the Hot Sheet.  Football will last all of the preseason, and will only wrap up appearances after the Super Bowl has ended, and the winning team’s stud players have finally ceased to move any higher.  And if there are certain cards that increase in the offseason, those will now be aknowledged.  Hockey and Basketball will also be added, starting with the two sports respective preseasons.  And other sports, such boxing, MMA, sports entertainment (i.e.- WWE/TNA cards), and any other sport (such as tennis or golf), that either a) has their own specific release, or b) is released within a set with a wide array of different sports autos (such as Allen & Ginter), will now also be included.

This card, which just sold at $40, was a recommened buy when he started to become the focus of the WWE 2 months ago.  Anyone picking up this WWE relic auto made 400%.  Not bad.  The “Money Where my Mouth Is” columns highlighted MANY high gainers, such as 2010 Sterling Black Refractor Autos of Red Sox wunderkind Ryan Lavarnway, which, if bought at the then Ebay price of under $60, would now see another 400% gain, as there has been just 1 on Ebay in 30 days,  Price?  $250

The end of the baseball season will also free up time to mention things like what’s going on in the world (I’m kidding!  Its a sports card blog)  But this picture (which I took at my next door neighbor’s house 3 hours ago)

now has a home besides my desktop!  Many don’t know, but have found out as we’ve spoken over the phone during my 8 months of writing at ASC.com, that I live a thousand miles from ASC HQ’s in Atlanta (I reside in Cape Cod, MA, and Naples FL in the winter)!  This picture shows a tree uprooted earlier today, during Tropical Storm Irene, which barely touched us!  Residual gusts of winds no higher than 40mph caused this! 

I made a living  a few years ago inventing an internal auditing business, where I would keep Waste and Recycling companies, renowned for ripping people off, in-check, for Fortune 500 companies, which started at Staples HQ in Framingham MA, and now serves over 80 of the Fortune 500 companies.  I was the best at making sure my clients were not getting ripped off.  I am taking this crusade to the baseball card companies, which, in many cases, do unscrupulous things.  My dissection of 2011 Bowman Platinum and they’re hatchet job of the checklist was widely read.  Did the owner of this company object to my “whistleblowing,” despite selling the same major-release product I reamed?  The answer is, no, he didn’t, which means if you are an ASC customer, you know that the most honest, no-nonsense guy will take care of you, and never push “clearance” items on you like they were essential buys.  (BPP anyone?) 

Many that follow this blog has seen my many references to, our outright articles devoted to, redemption cards starting to overrun each and every Topps release.  I vow, with the blessing of the owner of this progressive company (Josh Pankow), to make sure his customers never have the shades pulled over their eyes.  Whether its a “day-of-release” case break, or grading out future releases’ checklists, we want to have the smartest customers in the world, and like Waste Management (who keeps customers in the dark about how to save money), the other big trading card wholesale websites would also like to keep you in the dark.  Let’s be honest, not all products are hits, but online-retailers don’t want you to know that.  We are going to attack that stigma going forward here in 2011 and beyond…..

(I think this is one of just of 2 Topps Inception Football’s exchange cards…..Of course, I had to pull it.)

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The baseball card market usually hits its peak in June/July, and then trails off starting in September, at least as far as single cards are concerned.  New baseball products yet to be released will thrive or wither depending on how good, and more importantly, how short supplied that product is.  Gypsy Queen sits at $190/box, a 300% gain in just a few months since its release.  2011 Topps Tribute (nice catch JP!) baseball doubled in price, and anyone who didnt rip their wax, cleaned house on unopened sales soon after release.

It is literally impossible to break even if you buy a bunch of Gypsy Queen boxes at $190 apiece.  While some of the low #d cards have held some value, the current box price doesn’t make sense.  In a way, trading-card economics don’t make sense.  What we have here is your classic stalemate: Sellers are asking in excess of $200 for Gypsy Queen, because it is so scarce at this point and they’re probably in to it for close to that.  Now, the collector is intrigued that this product is rising in value, but because this collector is educated, he knows that he will never make out on breaking a case, let’s say, and thus won’t pay the $190-$230 a box going rate.  So the 2 parties agree to disagree.  This is happening now with Gypsy.

So when does one know that a “stalemate” is in effect?  The best way is to use a AUCTION : BUY IT NOW ratio.  Type in the name of the product in Ebay: (2011 Gypsy Queen), and then seperate them into “Auctions” (of which there are currently 908) and compare that to “Buy it Nows” (of which there are 10,882).  Divide 10882 by 908 and you come up with a 12:1 ratio.  Think about what that says:  Buy it Nows are used ONLY when a seller knows that putting a card up for auction may not bring the desired amount.  By using “Buy it Nows.” a dealer is saying “I will take $500 for a Koufax GQ auto, but not much less.”  This is smart because in the last week, Koufax GQ autos have ranged from $325 to $500 at auction.  Instead of taking that chance that yours will go for $325, knowing $500 is also reasonable, you use a Buy It Now.  But when BIN/Auction ratios get high like at 12:1, this stalemate or “gridlock” has occurred.

Let’s look at a product with a ratio lower than 12:1.  When typing in “2011 Inception,” I get approx 2000 Buy It Nows, and amazingly 2000 auction only items.  This is a 1:1 ratio.  What does this tell us?  It tells us that just as many dealers or sellers are “taking a chance” that they will get top dollar for their card than there are sellers who feel the need to use Buy It Now, because essentially they fear if it goes to auction, it will not bring as much as they’d like.  Inception, a popular, recent Football release, will have low ratios by nature, because there are enough people in a 7 day span to have the auction get as high as it should.  Gypsy Queen, with its predominantly “Buy it Now” listings, shows that there is a big difference between individual card/box/case value, and what people are willing to pay.

So why again is Gypsy so high?  And this is vitally important: Low supply.  The sell sheet looked blah, the checklist looked even more blah, and the cards were the color of sour milk.  So dealers, and thus distributors, didn’t order any.  So Topps didn’t produce any.  And, the final result is what is impossible to understand:  A mediocre product that no one really wants to buy is the biggest wax gainer of the year on a percentage basis.

So is it possible to predict if a product would be good?  The answer is yes and no, but you have to grasp the dichotomy that exists here.  If a product looks weak, dealers will err on the side or NOT ordering it, due to the fact that they will lose money if they are right and the product doesn’t sell.  But if one thinks contrarily, they will order the product they don’t like for sole reason that they believe no one will order it, replicating a Gypsy Queen phenomenon.  I spoke with Josh the day of release of Gypsy, and asked if he had a certain amount of boxes for sale, despite the fact that myself, like everyone else, didn’t pre-order it.  Josh said that morning, without having cracked any or having watched anyone crack GQ that this product would explode (Of course it did in the short AND long terms).  How could he know?  Easy.  It didn’t matter to him what was in there, all that mattered was that it was quite evident to him, that barely ANY of this product existed, despite being a fairly mainstream Topps release.  Which brings us to today.  Sure GQ wax is over $200/box (cost neared $70 I believe).  But the amount of single cards actually selling, pales in comparison with the amount available.  This is the 12:1 ratio.  If you wish to get the most for your cards, check the Ebay ratio I described…If its close to 1:1, you will likely get full value at auction.  Anything higher than that means you may have to sit on certain singles to move them.  Neither proves anything about a product’s long term value; instead, it looks at how liquid the product is at the present time.

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The happy medium here is that you evaluate a product before release, the bottom line is simply that if you like the product and the design and the checklist, you now considering pre-ordering the product.  2011 Topps Inception Football was absolutely not talked about before release.  With nothing to compare it to, it seemed like a crapshoot, although it seems, and I don’t have data to back this up, like Topps products are holding their value/increasing in value this year at a higher rate than Panini, Upper Deck (who seems to be content to wind down their hobby presence, that used to be so omnipresent), and certainly Sage and Press Pass and Tristar.  Which leaves Leaf, who is about to drop a Family Guy product that should certainly benefit from the show’s incredibly wide demographic.  This should help Leaf’s reputation even further, as they are making baby steps in an effort to be the next impact card manufacturer.

Each day this week we will preview an upcoming product.  Not just reading the sell sheet, which is basically what your dealer would regurgitate to you at a show (“4 hits, 1 guaranteed auto,”) but getting down and dirty by examining the checklist and any known pack odds, and looking for innovative measures like including new players yet to have autos (Hosmer in Topps Chrome was great, welcome news to me), while speculating on print runs and possible hobby hype.

Stick with us here at ASC.  We won’t let you down.  The biggest difference between ASC and any other company, is that Josh prides himself on Customer Service, the lowest prices in the world, and not playing favorites with manufacturers by allowing op-ed pieces written on his webpage.  This, and constant new innovations, like a new, meaty blog this year, and trying new things like case breaks, plus things in the works for the future, make this the ONLY company in the WORLD I would want to share my opinions on.  I guess I am that blessed. 

Thanks Josh, and members of ASC Nation.  It will always be my pleasure.  See you next week,

Jamie Kennedy

Incoming search terms:

• 90\s baseball box breaks
• nolan arenado blue autograph refractor

Written By James Kennedy, ASC Blog Writer

August 26, 2011

1. 2011 Upper Deck Football Ryan Mallett Auto

Mallett rises $30 from $60 to $90 based on his stellar QB play for the Patriots.  I don’t even like to think about it, but if Brady goes down with an injury (eeek!), we have a Navy SEAL talent in the “Reserves.”  Its great to be a Pats fan….

2. 2008 Razor Baseball Brett Lawrie Autographs

Some rose to $50 and beyone before settling in the $40 range.  His latest Grand Slam fuels this Razor release even more, as its now worth 2 times Hosmer’s only card, also a Razor exclusive.  Lawrie is talented, but when Topps drops the hammer with some sort of chrome autograph of Lawrie, this card may unfortunately be an afterthought.

3. 2011 Upper Deck Sweet Spot Football Tyron Smith Auto

Bizarrely, it will cost you in excess of $30 for this offensive lineman, up $10 from last week’s price (which also seemed high).  If I had to guess why Upper Deck Football remains strong on secondary sales, is because they made cards of anyone they wanted who played college football, often producing cards of local giants that went undrafted.  Smith does not fall in that category, but if Upper Deck didn’t step up its game with its last few football products, I doubt they would have lasted much longer.  This may still be the case, but I’m impressed with creativeness of both regular Upper Deck, and the newer Sweet Spot release.

4. 2008 Bowman Sterling Baseball Jesus Montero Auto Jersey

Raking since the All-Star break, Montero has restored himself to top prospect status since.  This card doubles from $20 to $40.

5. 2011 Topps Inception Football Kendall Hunter On Card Auto /600

He’s playing well in the preseason, but even if he wasn’t, that doesnt explain the $1 price tag on these cards early on.  They now sell near $10, for a great profit.

6. 2005 Bowman Draft Ryan Braun Autogaphs

Its amazing his cards aren’t thousands of dollars.  He’s on pace to become the most all around accomplished hitter of this generation, and if he continues to improve, has potential to be mentioned alongside Williams and Mantle years from now.  That’s high praise, but he produces high output.  Raw cards jump from $105 to $130, while BGS 9s jump $40, from $160 to $200.

7. 2011 Upper Deck Sweet Spot Football Ross Homan Auto

Upper Deck taking advantage of their college license by making OSU fans drool, as every graduating senior from last year has an auto in 1 of the 2 products.  Homan’s up, and I’m not even going to try to explain why:  I have never heard of him despite spending 29 hours per Saturday watching College Football.  (That’s actually possible if youre on the East Coast, and you watch the end of Hawaii home games.  Nevermind, that would only be 17 hours.  But as usual, I digress…)

8. 2010 Elite Extra Baseball Drew Smyly Auto

My favorite set has another random late pick as an exclusive auto.  Buyers have taken note of Smyly (who has 3 one-hit starts this year), and the card rises from $10.02 to $16.  Plus s/h of course!!

9. 2009 Elite Extra Baseball Tyler Skaggs Auto /820

Skaggs wasn’t supposed to be this good, but he turned out to be better than sure-things like Kyle Gibson and Chris Archer.  But that’s why they play the game folks….. Skaggs moves from $7 and change to $13 and change, as he continues to lead every league he’s in, in strikeouts.  There’s still scouting issues with certain pitches and arm action on his pitches, but the numbers speak for themselves.

10. 2011 Inception Football Stevan Ridley On Card Auto 

I told you it’s great to be a Pats fan!  Ridley leads the NFL in rushing early on in Exhibition Mode, but thats enough to move these cards.

11. All Roy Helu 2011 Football Autographs

12. 2010 Bowman Platinum Baseball Miguel Sano Ref Auto

Topping the BA Hot Sheet, the 18 year old continues to mash and rake, rake and mash.  This jumped from $10.50 to $20.

13. 2007 Bowman Chrome Peter Bourjos Autographs

Modest but admirable jump for the Angels’ speedster: $20 to $31.

14. 2006 Bowman Sterling Clayton Kershaw Auto

If you haven’t heard about Kershaw, mark your calendar and watch his next start.  he’s the classic “under the radar” guy you torture yourself over when he becomes the perennial CY Young award winner.

15. 2011 Upper Deck Sweet Spot Football Greg Salas Auto

This started out around $8, and now sells for $22-$25 regularly. 

16. 2011 Upper Deck Sweet Spot Football Mark Ingram Auto

This variation will run you $130, up 50% since last week.

17. 2011 Topps Inception Football Hobby Boxes

Coulda shoulda woulda.  This product makes it extremely tough to land a top QB or WR, and is heavy on second and 3rd rounders.  But presell prices were in the low $600s, paling in comparison to the $700 wholesale price right now.  Magnificent looking, its only marred by Rookie Photo Shoot patches used in totality.

18. 2011 Inception Football Von Miller Autograph Patch

The #2 overall pick has seen this card jump $10 from around $20 to $30.

19. 2010 Elite Extra Baseball Matt Moore Autographs

These held steady at $35 per this week, but the paralells are starting to command higher prices weekly.  No Minor League pitcher comes close to Moore’s stats or potential.  A no-brainer.

20. 2010 Elite Extra Baseball Jurickson Profar Autos

Profar, who’s ascent started at the Futures game, as he sped around the bases, has continued throughout the whole second half.  A buzz on profar eminated from the National Convention earlier this month, and the aftershocks are keeping buyers interested.  Great player to pick up.

August 26th, 2011

Incoming search terms:

• atlanta sport hobby
• top ebay sales profar

Last year, RETAIL and HOBBY had the same checklist.    A LOT of the TBD’s are filled in here, but we should have the hobby checklist up later today, and we will check and see if there is any difference between the 2.  As for now, 2 days outside the release of the product, this is what we have to work with.

Incoming search terms:

• 2011 bowman platinum baseball checklist
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Atlanta Sports Cards

“Money Where My Mouth Is”

Volume 5

By Jamie Kennedy

Volumes 1-4 have been VERY successful!  We will be posting a tote board by week’s end showing many, MANY gains!

But thats old news: lets add some cards that will surely bring some profit in the future!

ADD:  2008 Elite WILIN ROSARIO Autographs

Combine Rosario’s two half-seasons at Double-A and you’ve got a .272/.322/.514 hitter with 35 homers and 22 doubles in 551 at-bats. In that time, he’s gunned down and above-average 38 percent of 132 would-be basethiefs. Rosario’s raw tools suggest that the power and arm strength he’s shown with Tulsa are very real, and it’s easy to see why scouts project him to be an above-average regular at the big league level, possibly as soon as next season. One caveat: Rosario has mashed 12 of 16 homers this season versus Texas League righthanders, but he’s also gone just 43-for-192 (.224) against them.

Lets add 10 copies of the elite autos (the bases are #d to 1099).  These should run you from $5-$10 and are WELL worth the investment.

ADD:  2009 Bowman Draft TIM WHEELER AUTOS (Gold Refractor /50)

It’s been a bounce back year for Wheeler, the 32nd overall pick in 2009 who hit .249/.341/.384 in the high Class A California League last year. He’s been noted for his plus raw power before, but he’s been on a major surge of late. Wheeler has gone deep nine times in his last 18 games (he hit 12 in 129 games last year), moving into a tie for the minor league home run lead with 28 on the year. It’s worth noting the lefthanded-hitting Wheeler still has a fairly sizable platoon split, a carryover from last year. But he did hit one of his homers this week against a lefty, his sixth long ball against a southpaw out of his 28 this year.

For just $99, these are available on Ebay.  Make sure and pick up at least 1 copy!

ADD: 2010 Bowman Chrome Miguel Sano Autos

Scouts have talked about Sano’s ability to hit and hit for power since he was 14. Four years later, Sano is showing why, with a quick swing that produces thundering power. Sano hit his sixth home run of the season this week, pushing his slash stats to .298/.338/.612 through 30 games. Of his 36 hits, more than half (21) have gone for extra bases. His 32 strikeouts are a touch high, but he has a good swing and enough power to produce 30-plus home runs in a season if it all comes together for him. The question right now with Sano is whether he’ll finish the season with more extra-base hits or errors. Extra-base hits have the lead for now, but Sano already has 16 errors—seven in 10 games at shortstop, another nine in 20 games at third base. Sano’s bazooka arm would be a weapon at third base, but to even stay at the position is going to take quite a bit of work.

Add 2-3 base autos ($20) and 1-2 refractor autos ($40-$50)

ADD:  Any Jurickson Profar Autos

Profar’s season batting line of .284/.387/.521 would be impressive on its on merits, but put in context his performance makes him one of the two best shortstop prospects in the minors (the other being Manny Machado). The South Atlantic League’s youngest player, Profar has continued developing his power—10 homers this year—while showing plate discipline that would be uncanny for anyone, let alone a player so young. Profar has drawn 42 walks in 77 games, while striking out just 40 times. He’s been the fourth-hardest hitter to strike out in the SAL, going down on strikes just once every 8.7 plate appearances. We ranked him 12th on our midseason Top 50 prospects list, and scouts are saying now that we could have been even more aggressive in moving him up.

We can’t stress enough, at 18 years old, that Profar now is the consensus #2 overall hitting prospect behind a very cooled-off Harper.  Grab as many 2010 Elites or 2011 Bowman Chrome Autos as possible.  This kid WILL skyrocket in value over the 2nd half of the season.  We’re betting on it!

Incoming search terms:

• sano chrome refractor
• Sports cards for money in atlanta

Atlanta Sports Cards Baseball Card Hot Sheet

July 16th, 2011

By Jamie Kennedy

1. 2010 Michael Choice Wrapper Buyback Auto /100

He’s 1 HR off the Minor League lead, and this card has surged 100% from $55 to $110

2. 2010 Elite Matt Moore Autograph /819

He just keeps impressing at every turn.  His card moves from $25 to $40 and seemingly has no ceiling

3. 2010 Bowman Sterling Jesse Biddle Autographs

He’s let up 3 ERs in last 5 starts and his cards are scorching hot as he draws comparisons to Steve Carlton

4. 2010 Bowman Chrome Wrapper Auto Drew Pomeranz /100

A promotion to AA has made this card double in price from $50 to $100 and rising.

5. 2010 Elite Extra Ronald Torreyes Autos

6. 2010 Elite Nick Castellanos Autos

7. All Taijuan Walker Autographs

At 18 years old, people are finally starting to realize this kid is the realest of deals.

9. 2010 Bowman Chrome Miguel Sano Refractor Auto

He was cold; after a few stints on BA Hot Sheet though, his refractors have moved from $30 to $60 and rising.

10. 2010 Elite Extra Cody Buckel Autos

9 Spot to watch

Atlanta Sports Cards

By Jamie Kennedy, ASC Blog Writer

Futures Game – Players to Watch

1. Grant Green, IF (Athletics)

Green mashed in all of his at bats, scoring 2 doubles in as many appearances.  Not just that, he looked great in the field.  He is somewhat of a forgotten prospect, who excelled at A ball last year, and his 2010 Bowman card took off.  Fast forward to 2011, where at AA, he blended in with all the other talent.  After showing off all 5 tools in the game though, he is certainly one to pick up.  He won the MVP, which probably has his cards too high at this point, but if they dip, you may want to pick some up.

Key Card: 2010 Bowman Chrome Auto

2.  Gary Brown, OF (Giants)

Announcers commented on Brown’s love for the game, and Brown responded by showing gap power, and really, REALLY great speed.  After singling in the 6th, he stole second, and despite the ball getting away on the throw, his head first slide and big smile made up for not advancing to 3rd.  Nevertheless, he ended up scoring and making a great catch in the outfield.  His tweets are now legendary for their goofiness, but the bottom line is, he is no less talented than Mike Trout, and has a HUGE career ahead of him.  His cards advance in price every day, so grab them now while you still can.

Key Card: 2010 Bowman Sterling Refractor Auto /199

3.  Sebastian Valle, C (Phillies)

Valle hit the ball hard every time up, surprising everyone, as he was one of the lesser heralded players going into the game.  If any 1 prospect improved their positioning the most, it was the not-well-known Valle.

Key Card: 2010 Bowman

4. Drew Pomeranz, P (Indians)

After recording 2 quick outs, Pomeranz let 4 straight runners reach.  This all went down right after one announcer anointed him “possible game MVP.”  I loved his stuff: a tight curveball and a well placed 96 MPH fastball, complimented by a nasty drop-off-the-table knuckle curve.  But what stood out, was the pitcher’s tantrum he threw as he flipped the ball in the air when Piazza took him out.  Unimpressed big time.

Key Card: 2009 UD USA Patch Auto /99

5. Jarred Cosart, P (Phillies)

His 1 inning took about 1 minute to finish.  He blew through 3 batters with impeccable control of a high-90s fastball, and is well on his way to joining the rotation of all rotations.

Key Card: 2011 Bowman Chrome Auto

6. Nolan Arenado, OF (Rockies)

His opposite field double just rams the point home that this kid is the best prospect no one knows in the game.  Very impressed.

Key Card: 2010 Bowman Chrome Auto

7. Arodys Vizcaino, P, Braves

Pinpoint control of his 98 MPH fastball, and a knee buckling curve were the revelations of the game for me.  Since watching him Sunday, I put my money where my mouth is even further, picking up 2 more gold refractor autos in the 2010 Bowman Chrome Set

Key Card: 2010 Bowman Chrome Auto

8. Jurickson Profar, OF

Profar hit a ball in the gap, and despite not hitting the wall, crusied into 3rd base.  Seems like the next Jose Reyes.

Key Card: 2011 Bowman Chrome Auto

9.  Matt Moore, P (Rays)

Perfect. As expected.

Key Card: 2010 Elite Auto /819

Midseason Top 25 Prospects

By Jamie Kennedy, Atlanta Sports Cards Blog Writer

1. Bryce Harper (Nationals)

2. Matt Moore (Rays)

3. Shelby Miller (Cardinals)

4. Mike Trout (Angels)

5. Julio Teheran (Braves)

6. Robbie Erlin (Rangers)

7. Manny Machado (Orioles)

8. Jameson Taillon (Pirates)

9. Jesus Montero (Yankees)

10. Gerrit Cole (Pirates)

11. Tyler Skaggs (Diamondbacks)

12. Manny Banuelos (Yankees)

13. Taijuan Walker (Mariners)

14. Matt Harvey (Mets)

15. Jonathan Singleton (Phillies)

16. Anthony Ranaudo (Red Sox)

17. Drew Pomeranz (Indians)

18. Dellin Betances (Yankees)

19. Bubba Starling (Royals) 

20. Gary Brown (Giants)

21. Nick Castellanos (Tigers)

22. Michael Choice (A's)

23. Zack Wheeler (Giants)

24. Arodys Vizcaino (Braves)

25. Nolan Arenado (Rockies)

Just Missed The Cut....XX. Kyle Gibson (Twins) XX. Jedd Gyorko (Padres) XX. Tyler Thornburg (Brewers) XX. Jarred Cosart (Phillies) XX. Trevor May 

(Phillies) XX Wilmer Flores (Mets), Ronald Torreyes (Reds), Pat Corbin (Diamondbacks), XX Brandon Belt (Giants), Ryan Lavarnway (Red Sox), 

Bryce Brentz (Red Sox), Tim Wheeler (Rockies), XX- Danny Hultzien (2011 Draft)

SPOT TO WATCH

Written by James Graham

Jonathan Singleton LF Phi D.O.B. 9/18/91

Singleton began the year adjusting to his new position and had struggles at the plate.  Pre season, he was one of Philly’s top prospects, but after a terrible start he had fallen off the map in card value.  Over the past 10 games however, he has rebounded and began to show why he was the #1 Baseball America prospect in the South Atlantic League in 2010.  In his last 10, he is hitting .457 with 9 BB resulting in an OPS of 1.368 over that span.  It looks like the time has come for this top prospect to show why he was rated so high in the offseason.

Key Card-2010 Bowman Draft Aflac Buyback Auto /127

Nolan Arenado 3B Col D.O.B. 4/16/91

Another top prospect out of the South Atlantic League in 2010 that struggled when he first arrived in high A ball, Arenado has since rebounded and rebounded tremendously hitting .369 in June.  Over his past 10 games he is hitting .395 with an OPS of 1.039 to show why he was selected for the Futures Game on July 10^th.  Arenado is a tremendous hitter and could be the heir apparent to Todd Helton in Colorado.  In 2010, Arenado played in 92 games and hit 41 doubles despite not debuting until mid-May.  They say 19 year olds who hit 40 doubles become 25 year olds who hit 40 homers.

Key Card-2010 Bowman Prospects autographs

His Super is on eBay right now.

Scooter Gennett 2B Mil D.O.B. 5/1/90

Another doubles machine, Gennett hit 39 two-baggers in his first full season of pro ball.  This season he began the year at High A Brevard Country of the Florida State League.  The adjustment from A ball to high A took Gennett some time to get use to, hitting .212 in the month of May.  June however, is a different story.  Gennett is hitting .375 in his last 10 and .337 for the month.  Much like the previous two prospects on this list, it took Gennett time to get use to the advance pitching you see in the Florida State and California Leagues respectively.

Key Card-2010 Bowman Draft Aflac Buyback Auto /230

Matt Moore P TB D.O.B. 6/18/89

The strikeout leader of the minors in 2010 has not let off the gas in 2011.  Moore has 107 Ks in 82.2 innings for the season.  He also has held opponents to just a .186 average for the season.  These numbers have become even more mind numbing by how unhittable he has been in his last two starts.  First he pitched a complete game no hitter, the first in the Minors this year, with 11 strikeouts, and then followed that up by allowing just 3 hits over 5 innings of work.  For the month of June, Moore is 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA and has only allowed 12 hits in 24 innings.

Key Card-2010 Elite Extra Autograph /819

Kyle Seager INF Sea D.O.B. 11/3/87

One of the most underrated prospects in all of minor league baseball, Seager has quietly made his way to AAA.  In 22 AAA at bats, Seager has 11 hits and 3 of those knocks have are doubles.  Seager was just called up from AA when Dustin Ackley got the call to the Bigs.  In AA this year, Seager was hitting .312 with 30 XBHs in just 66 games.  His 2010 was no slouch year either, but many thought he may have just been another product of the California League.  In 2010 Seager hit .345 with 40 doubles and sported an OPS of .921, which is amazing considering the lack of offensive production associated with that position..

Key Cards-2009 Elite Extra autograph /744, 2010 Bowman Chrome Autograph

Oscar Taveras OF Stl D.O.B. 6/19/92

A 2008 international free agent, Taveras played in the SS Appalachian League in 2010, batting .322.  This season he was relegated to extended spring training and made his debut 22 games ago in the Midwest League.  In those 22 contests, he has 35 hits to give him a .417 average for the season.  Over his last 10 games however, he is hitting .359 and shows no signs of slowing down.  The Dominican native just turned 19 so most likely he has a bright future ahead of him.

Key Card-2011 Topps Pro Debut

Ronald Torreyes 3B Cin D.O.B. 9/2/92

After mashing his way through the VSL in 2010 the Reds brought him back to America where he continued to mash.  In the AZL, Torreyes hit .349 and even got a late season promotion to the Midwest League Dayton Dragons.  So far in limited action this season, Ronald is hitting .417 in 6 games to go along with 4 stolen bases.  Torreyes is small in stature but big with the bat.  He also has tremendous speed and when you put that together with a plus bat and being just 19 years old, you could have a great leadoff hitter for years to come.

Key Card-2010 Elite Extra Autograph /599

Dayan Viciedo 3B CHW D.O.B. 3/10/89

One of the most publicized Cuban defectors in all of baseball, Viciedo had a good 2010, but needed to refine his defense.  In 2010 he hit .274 in 86 AAA games and when he was promoted he hit well; .308 in MLB.  Many thought he may begin the season with the White Sox, but being just 22 they wanted to take their time and let him become a well rounded player.  They also did not want to rush him to the bigs and then have mental troubles like Aroldis Chapman, another fellow Cuban defector.  Over his last 10 he is scorching hot, hitting .341 and having multiple hit games in 6 of his last 10.  Viciedo should not have much longer in AAA as you should expect to see him as a late season call up.

Key Cards-2008 Playoff Contenders Auto /395

Kaleb Cowart 2B LAA D.O.B. 6/2/92

After just beginning his 2011 campaign a little over a week ago, Cowart has been almost impossible to get out.  In 8 games he is hitting .533 with 16 hits in just 30 ABs.  In those 8 games and he managed to knock in 8 runs and has an OPS so far of 1.217.  The 18^th overall pick in 2010, Cowart was thought of as the best athlete in the draft, and even on draft night the Angels were not sure whether he was going to pitch or play the field.  If he can consistently get on base like this he could be answering the question for them.

Key Card-2010 Bowman Draft Autograph, 2010 Elite Extra Autograph /750

Incoming search terms:

• ronald torreyes

ATLANTA SPORTS CARDS

By James Kennedy

SPOT TO WATCH

Adam Warren, P, Yankees AAA

Yankees seem to be afraid to lean on their prospects in times of need, Warren was one of my main exhibits, and he helped prove my point with six shutout innings on Saturday to lower his ERA to 2.87. To be clear, Warren isn’t some kind of savior or future star, but he should be able to hold his own in the big leagues thanks to a plus fastball and average secondary offerings. Why go through all the machinations to add Brian Gordon to the roster and leave Warren down on the farm? Only the Yankees know for sure.

Rob Erlin, P, AA Rangers

After dominating the Carolina League for the first two months of the season, the Texas League hadn’t been as kind to Erlin, who entered Sunday’s start with a 5.28 ERA thanks to more than a hit per inning. Some were wondering if his extreme strike-throwing ways were starting to catch up to him. He put many of those doubts to rest with a career-high 14 strikeouts over 6 2/3 innings while throwing 77 of his 105 pitches for strikes. Struggles for a 20-year-old in Double-A are more than understandable. A 14-strikeout game for a 20-year-old is more than a bit impressive. He still profiles as a middle-of-the-rotation starter and the kind of player who exceeds projections.

Nick Franklin, SS, AA-Seattle

For two-and-a-half months, Franklin was a disappointment. The 2009 first-round pick led the Midwest League with 23 home runs last year, and with a move to High Desert this year, big things were expected, or at least big numbers. Instead, we got a baffling .275/.356/.411 line with just five home runs in 258 at-bats. Nonetheless, the 20-year-old was moved up to Double-A as part of the Dustin Ackley domino effect that bumped Kyle Seager to Triple-A. While Seager was busy going 9-for-18 in his first four games for Tacoma, Franklin was the bigger surprise, with four straight multi-hit games that put him at 9-for-16 in his first four Southern League games with a home run. Being disappointing at one level and then being great after moving up is always a confusing combination. We need more data before making any conclusions.

Aaron Hicks, OF, Hi-A Twins

We’ve been talking about his tools nonstop since he was a first-round pick in 2008, but the numbers haven’t been there, including the first two months of this season. All of a sudden, he’s arguably the most dynamic player in the Florida State League; with a 4-for-10 weekend that included two doubles and three walks, he’s hitting .333/.477/.507 in 19 June games and .275/.390/.410 overall. A plus-plus center fielder with a plus-plus arm, Hicks has plenty of defensive value, and he’s always had a patient approach. Now that’s he’s hitting, and with scouts believing that many of his 19 doubles in 229 at-bats will turn into home runs down the road, there’s real reasons for optimism here.

Ryan Lavarnway, C, AAA-Red Sox

Lavarnway has always hit. He has put up big numbers since he was selected out of Yale in the sixth round in 2008, including a .356/.420/.667 line in 11 Triple-A games after a 5-for-13 weekend that included two doubles and a home run. Combining a quick bat with massive strength, scouts have no problem projecting him as a big-leaguer at the plate, but the debate rages about his abilities behind it. He’s big, thick, and slow, and while that’s not rare for a catcher, he doesn’t move well behind the plate, and it takes a long time to get his 6-foot-4, 225-pound frame out of a crouch, leading to problems controlling his running game. Still, scouts are quick to say he’s getting better back there, possibly to the point of adequacy, and a September look should give us a better idea of where his future lies with the Red Sox.

Angel Sanchez, P, Lo-A Dodgers

Few players in the minors have been more of a pop-up prospect than Sanchez, who had his best outing as a pro on Saturday with five no-hit innings to lower his ERA to 1.83. Signed last year out of the Dominican as a relatively old 20-year-old, Sanchez made his pro debut in late May with the Loons, moved into the rotation this month, and has limited the league to a .143 batting average by allowing just 17 hits in 34 1/3 innings while striking out 37. At 6-foot-3, skinny and long-levered, Sanchez has a smooth delivery that cuts loose 91-94 mph fastballs with good movement, to go with a solid curveball that he has trouble controlling at times and a changeup that is a true plus offering. I’m not going to lie; I hadn’t even heard of this guy heading into the season, and now he’s someone Midwest League scouts can’t stop talking about.

Trevor May, Hi-A Florida

May might be starting to put it all together. The Phillies’ 2008 fourth-round pick struggled in high Class A last year, going 5-5, 5.01 in 70 innings before a midseason demotion to low Class A, where he remained the rest of the season. Inconsistent mechanics leading to poor control were May’s undoing last year, but he’s made significant strides this year. His 37 walks in 78 innings this year might not sound especially impressive, but when you consider where he’s coming from—61 walks in 70 innings for Clearwater last year—it’s clear there’s been some progress.

May, who was also the winning pitcher in the Florida State League all-star game last Saturday, hasn’t allowed more than three runs in 11 consecutive starts dating back to April 19. Against Tampa on Wednesday, May had a no-hitter for five innings and his fastball sat consistently in the 90-95 mph range. He touched 94 in the seventh inning, and Tampa’s hitters only hit a couple balls hard all night.

May struck out the side twice on his way to matching his career-high with 14 strikeouts. He fanned eight of 10 batters from the third through fifth innings. Unfortunately for May, Tampa came back to tie the score after he departed, and the game wound up being suspended due to rain in the 10th inning. The way he’s going, May could very well be in Double-A by the time the game is completed.

Drew Smyly, HiA- Tigers

Smyly just loves pitching at Daytona. Smyly’s best two starts of his brief professional career have come on the road against the Cubs’ affiliate. This week, Smyly struck out a career-high eight batters in seven innings, matching his longest start. In his last start in Daytona, he threw seven no-hit innings and struck out seven. Overall, Smyly has brushed off some elbow concerns that hampered him early in the year and has a 2.92 ERA in eight starts.

Tyler Skaggs, HiA- Angels

Tyler Skaggs continued his domination of the high Class A California League last Friday, in his final start before the all-star break. The 19-year-old struck out seven batters in six innings, pushing his season total to a league-leading 102 in 83 innings. That matches his whiff total from all of last season .

Atlanta Sports Cards

Weekly Hot Sheet

June 23, 2011

By James Kennedy and Jimmy Graham

1. 2011 Bowman Michael Pineda Retail Autograph

The difference between Pineda and the other guys, is, he’s doing it in the majors.  This first licensced auto surges $20 to $60.

2.  2010 Elite Extra Nick Castenellos Autographs

Castellanos has managed to make up for a horrid May with a torrid June.  Its all starting to click for the Tiger’s best hitting prospect in a long time.  With only the Elite availabale, it has zoomed from $12 to $33.

3.  2010 Elite Extra Matt Moore Autograph /819

We’ve touted Moore from the rooftops this year!  If you were on board you were rewarded by the first 9 inning no hitter in the Minors in a year, the BA.com Number 1 slot, and 30-50% upward movement on the Elite autos, including an Emerald /25 that flew $50 to $130.

4.  2010 Bowman Sterling Ryan Lavarnway Autographs

Also portrayed in “Money Where My Mouth Is,” it seems more are on board than thought.  The forgotton man in that column gained themost.  $3 per to $15 dld.  Huge gains.

5.  2010 Elite Extra Josh Spence Auto

A .49 cent card becomes a $5 card.Newsworthy only for its 1000% gain as Spence debuts in MLB as a reliever.

6. 2009 Bowman Sterling Tom Mendonca Autograph

“2-for-3, HR (15), 2 R, 3 RBI, K. 26-for-49 (.531) in last 11 games and up to .332/.382/.599 overall, and improved approach goes more reason to think there is some level of reality here.”

As little as $1 10 days ago, these now sell in the $10 ballpark.  Mendonca is putting a Triple Crown type year in the Rangers organization.

7. 2011 Bowman Sterling Taijuan Walker Autographs

After a 11 strikeout performance, no Walker card can be had under $10 dlvd.  All of his autos have gained 50% this week.

“Walker had another one of those outings on Friday night where everything clicked; he struck out 11 batters over seven innings while allowing just two hits. While he dominated primarily with a mid-90s fastball that touched 97-98 on plenty of occasions, he also flashed a plus power curveball that could turn him into a monster if he can be more consistent with it. One scout put it best by saying, “The thing I like best about him is his birthday,” as the ultra-athletic righty doesn’t turn 19 until August. He arguably has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the Midwest League, but the amazing thing is there are plenty of nights that he’s one of the best pitchers on the circuit right now. ”

8.  2010 Bowman Chrome Arodys Vizcaino Autographs

Atlanta keeps churning out front line prospects.  Arodys is no different, and has a different, if not more intriguing ceiling than teammate Julio Teheran.  After 6 weeks of giving up hardly any runs, people are on notice as the chromes surged ahead this week.

With Vizcaino, the stuff has never been the question, but his health always has been. So Vizcaino’s recent promotion to Double-A Mississippi is notable both because it makes him one of the younger pitchers in the Southern League and also because with 66 innings, he’s on pace to blow past his career high of 85 last year. His stuff compares pretty favorably to fellow Braves prospects Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado. Teheran, Mike Minor and now Delgado are all getting starts in Atlanta because of injuries. Vizcaino isn’t ready to make that jump just yet, but he’s not far behind.

9.  2000 Ryan Vogelsong Rookie Cards

Sent off to Japan for many years, Vogelsong is looking Koufax-esqu.  For now.  These once negatively-valued chrome cards pictured above have now lost their status as “waste,” and is now “recyclable.”  To the tune of $10 per card, a far cry from literally a penny.

10.  2010 Bowman Dustin Ackley Gold Refractor Auto /50

Ackley has looked so-so in his debut.  But better than Rizzo or Moustakas.  This issue burns up the Hot Sheet going from $310 to $465

11. 2010 Bowman Draft Taylor Lindsey Gold Refractor Auto /50

14. 2010 DONRUSS ELITE RONALD TORREYES AUTO RC /799

“Torreyes was the talk of Reds camp this spring, as even big-league manager Dusty Baker was publicly praising the 18-year-old Venezuelan’s hitting ability, a rare feat for a player who entered the year with just 24 games of experience in North America after hitting .390/.468/.606 for the Reds’ Venezuelan Summer League affiliate. Expected to begin the year in a short-season league, the Reds surprised many by putting him on the Dayton roster over the weekend, where he went 4-for-8 in his first two games. Listed at 5-foot-9 and 140 pounds, Torreyes is hardly an imposing physical presence, but he combines excellent bat speed with fantastic hands and an instinctual feel for hard contact. Throw in plus speed and excellent defensive skills, and a player that was expected to be one of the ones to watch in the Pioneer League is going to give us much more information by being challenged at a higher level.”

Honorable Mention: Michael Choice 2010 Bowman Draft Autos

BONUS!!!   “Who’s #1?”

Everyone anxiously awaits -as do I- Baseball America’s Hot Sheet each Friday.  So on Thursday nights, Im going to try and give blog readers a heads up, and predict who will be #1.  Let’s see how many I can get!

Thursday Night: Prediction: #1 on Hot Sheet tomorrow is Jonathan Singleton, Clearwater Phillies

Incoming search terms:

• julio teheran
• ronald torreyes baseball america hot sheet
• taijuan walker 2011