Warm Regards,
Matt Almond

You stated:

“The Reds, Atomics and Golds tell one story and that’s the story that Topps is apparently putting out. Yet, the incredibly weird aspect of this is that the ratios don’t line up. If they’re equally numbered, as these colors are, your odds should be about 4x for each of the four packs available in the autograph redemption set. This isn’t the case and each ratio for Non-Auto to Auto comes in at a different number.”

I’m even a tad confused at this point. If you’re wondering why 3 non-usa parallels, like blue, black and sepia tone, have different odds while all being #d to 99, it seems impossible until you remember that some are also in Retail packs, which skew the hobby odds depending on the ratio of each specific refractor.

I’m thinking that you’re saying Topps ALWAYS had planned to give away entire sets for the exch cards, and really DID panic and, yes, possibly bait and switch the odds as they realized either a) they overproduced and over-seeded EVERY kind of exchange card (highly doubtful) or b) they were scared about TC flopping 2 years in a row, so quadruple printed some of the exchange cards to give the appearance of added value to the box.

I’m not going to accuse Topps of anything. They clearly have their own problem getting even ONE product right this year. Seriously though, I’m imagining it takes nearly a year from the time a set is concieved, to the time its finally packed out. If this is correct, than one has to be naive beyond belief to believe that what Topps is doing is unintentional.

Its so similar to Bowman Platinum Baseball this year (which is selling on street corners for wooden nickels at this point). Was it a “mistake” that 14 guys on the cheklist were dropped (with maybe 1 or 2 added)? SURVEY SAYS: Nope, nope, and nope. That would mean collation is so bad at a company whos been at it for 60 years, that those big ass sorting machines just “forgot” to seed those 14 guys in.

Defending Topps will backfire on people doing it (not that many are). In 2011 BP Baseball, they advertised cards were going to be there, and youre telling me that despite those cards being a) on the sell shets, b) on the checklists LOADED INSIDE THE BOX, but c) nowhere to be found, with NO explination from Clay L. (factoid: he was named afer what his brain is composed of), that this isnt bait and switch??? That’s the definition. So o have them mess up the gypsy queen hits, the 2010 BC fiasco with the wrapper redemptions, and the recent delays in their products, I have to admit that there is stuff going on over at Topps that is so inept and sketchy, that investors just voted to change the name of the company to “Bottoms”

With Panini, at least they tell you up front your box is going to suck. What Topps does- giving one hope- is just plain mean.

at least topps understands

JP- I’m so impressed and proud. This column is SO must-read! Now that you and me are writing, I actually have to read my own blog now because your stuff went from cut-and-paste press releases, to uber-awesome, kick ass, must read opinion pieces with your trademark inside info!

The second best writer on ASC.com,
Jamie K

It takes about two seconds looking at the pack odds to realize that they did something very fishy. The printing plate redemption odds are exactly the same for both NON-AUTO and AUTO. I was trying to retrace my steps, and I think this is where I got thrown off course.

If the printing plate odds are exactly the same, it would follow that these are BOTH sets. So upon reading Clay’s announcement that they were packs, I lost it. It was at the forefront of my mind and obviously took priority over anything else and I must’ve assumed it had long been advertised that way. You can’t have equal odds of printing plates at 1:230,000 and still have the USA Autographs be packs.

Going back and reading the pack-odds, you’re left with an absolute shit-show.

The Reds, Atomics and Golds tell one story and that’s the story that Topps is apparently putting out. Yet, the incredibly weird aspect of this is that the ratios don’t line up. If they’re equally numbered, as these colors are, your odds should be about 4x for each of the four packs available in the autograph redemption set. This isn’t the case and each ratio for Non-Auto to Auto comes in at a different number.

The Printing Plates tell another story, and that’s that these were sets rather than packs.

The Superfractor odds tell a final story, and I haven’t the slightest clue as to what it is. The only thing that I can think of is that you won’t be getting a pack of superfractors at all. You’ll be getting one.

I definitely felt the need to follow up on this and try and explain myself. I did get very confused, but I still have trouble taking responsibility for the confusion. From the redemption cards saying set, to the packs saying whatever it is they’re saying, it’s almost impossible not to get confused.

First off, in fairness to Topps they NEVER solicited anything about these Autograph Redemptions being Sets. They were mis-printed on the redemption cards. End of story. So, this isn’t a case of bait-and-swtich. They didn’t tell people this to try and sell extra cases. Was it a major error? Absolutely. Was it a blatant error trying to get people to buy it and then replace it with something else? Absolutely NOT.

Secondly, as for the Football RCs Jamie mentioned I’d like to try and explain it. I don’t think the good RCs are any harder to get than normal. Here’s the deal. There are A LOT more hits this year than normal. That’s why there are more of the “so-so” hits. The companies can’t afford to put a ton more Newton, Ingram, Gabbert, Green, Jones, ETC. So, they have to use more of some of the lesser known guys. Hence the abundance of Taiwan Jones. The thing to remember with this is that Topps has to use the “bigger” hits wisely. They need these guys to be very plentiful in the higher end products at the end of the year. They assume they can sell Inception, Platinum and Finest without overloading them with the higher end RCs. This isn’t true in regards to products like Triple Threads and Five Star. As bas as it feels to pay $90 for a box and not get a good RC hit. It feels a lot worse when you pay $200 or $400. This is no different than any other year. If you went back and opened 70 boxes of 2010 Finest, Platinum, Elite, Prestige and Rookies & Stars you’d find the same thing. Sometimes you can open 1 box and get lucky. Sometimes you can open 70 and not so much.

Josh