TOPPS OFFERS EXCLUSIVE GLOSSY 2011 ALLEN AND GINTER COMPLETE SET

Topps announces that for the first time ever it’s offering its popular Allen & Ginter Baseball line in complete set form, but with a twist! 

Reminiscent of the 1980s Topps Tiffany sets, this 360-card glossy-coated base set will be offered exclusively online at ShopTopps.com and will be limited to just 999 copies.  In addition, each card in the set is sequentially numbered in gold foil.

And this Allen & Ginter offering will have something extra special…10 cards not found in the standard Allen & Ginter pack product including the rookie cards of the highly-touted Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Dustin Ackley.

The special edition set is available for $99.95 and is the company’s first ever exclusive ToppsShop.com sports product.

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Hello All!

Please check out our first video case break @ the following links: 

http://www.blogtv.com/shows/2539301/ZmVuYeZHZWFtZ2ZGbuTw&pos=ancr  (Part 1)

http://www.blogtv.com/Shows/2539301/date/ZmVuYeZHZWFtZ2ZGbuRH (Part 2)

http://www.blogtv.com/Shows/2539301/date/ZmVuYeZHZWFtZ2ZGbuRF (Part 3)

We will be using this forum for Hobby updates, info on Pre-Sells, and Box Breaks, both live and taped.

So enjoy the run-through of my hits from 18 boxes of Topps Chrome, and come back here and get yourself some of that action!  Boxes available and theyre just a super break!

PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU HAVE POP-UP BLOCKER OFF TO AVOID THEIR POP-UP ADS!  THANKS!

Jamie

Incoming search terms:

• 2011 topps chrome baseball case break

SANDY KOUFAX CONCLUDES POPULAR PRIME 9 HOBBY SHOP PROGRAM

The final PRIME 9 subject to be announced is Redemption card # 9…Sandy Koufax.

For the past 9 weeks, Topps and Major League Baseball has designated a “Prime 9 Player of the Week” to celebrate the “prime” players at every position in MLB history.  Collectors holding the corresponding Prime 9 Redemption card for that week brought their cards into participating HTA stores and redeemed them for an exclusive limited edition Topps Chrome Refractor.

The cards can be found in Series 2 Hobby packs (1:18) and Jumbo packs (1:5).  Each card is denoted by a Week number (1, 2, 3, etc.).

Stay tuned for another exciting hobby store promotion in conjunction with 2012 Topps Baseball Series 1!

The “PRIME 9”

Week 1 (July 19^th) Johnny Bench, Catcher (redemption card #1)

Week 2 (July 26^th) Albert Pujols, First Base (redemption card #2)

Week 3 (Aug. 5^th) Jackie Robinson, Second Base (redemption card #3)

Week 4 (Aug. 12^th) Derek Jeter, Shortstop (redemption card #4)

Week 5 (Aug. 19^th) Mike Schmidt, Third Base (redemption # 5)

Week 6 (Aug. 26^th) Hank Aaron, Left Field (redemption # 6)

Week 7 (Sept. 2^nd) Mickey Mantle, Center Field (redemption # 7)

Week 8 (Sept. 9^th) Ichiro, Left Field (redemption #8)

Week 9 (Sept. 16^th) Sandy Koufax, Pitcher (redemption # 9)

Incoming search terms:

• johnny bench card

TOPPS AND THE “SAY HEY KID” BACK TOGETHER AGAIN

Topps announces it has signed a multi-year autograph deal with the legendary “Say Hey Kid”, Willie Mays.

The first offering of Mays’ Autograph will appear in the highly-anticipated 2012 Topps Baseball Series 1, which hits shelves early February.  After that, collectors can expect to find the slugger’s autographed cards in products such as Topps Tribute (image attached), Gypsy Queen and much more.  In addition, Topps will be issuing a variety of relic cards featuring the Hall of Famer.

The Topps and Mays relationship dates back to the beginning when Willie appeared in the company’s famed 1952 Topps Baseball set.  Willie then went on to star on Topps cardboard for another 21 consecutive seasons.

Incoming search terms:

• the hey kid card 22kt

“Again?” (The writer’s commentary version)

Jamie’s follow ups are in green, Josh is in Red)

Part 1 – “Writing on no sleep brings out a tad of sarcasm and attempted humor”

Dear Topps….

I am a loyal customer of yours named James Kennedy.  I have been with you since I was 5 years old.  25+ years later, and I have  treasured our relationship.  I still do.  But Topps, you are raking my eyes like a Ric Flair thumb to the eye….Here is a snapshot of your site after I typed in my Chrome exchange card numbers.  “Exchange card numbers”….How f-ed up is it to even have to say all those words:

Topps’ man in the suit extolls:  “Exchange redemption card…. randomly inserted…. sometimes, at an equal rate…. sometimes, but were not telling even if that’s not the case, although the redemption exchanges WON’T be what you get…..Silly collectors……..time for a wrapper redemption throwing party!”  Their PR rivals Casey Anthony’s. (Too soon?)

That aside though…..and I have to admit this is easily…..EASILY the best non-draft picks set to come out in ages.  (Ages.  That makes me feel old)  The break was awesome but it didnt lull for more than 2 packs in a row.  Amazing.  Parallels were added- not untastefully- led by the dreamy (OK Lorraine McFly) “Sepia Tone” refractors /99.  I dunno what Sepia Tone is but I know it makes a cool looking insert.  Half black.  Half white.  Ebony and Ivory.  Flavor Flav and Bridgette Nielsen.  Magic Johnson and any white woman.  They just go together. (At this point, I was exhausted!)

So, Topps, let me get this straight.  You release the product this week.  I CLEARLY bought it AFTER the release.  For the third time in 3 products, not only do you keep people waiting forever like a baseball card DMV, now you decided, “We can’t get a half-retarded kid to type in 10 letter/number codes at some time prior to release.  My God- it feels like you repeatedly slap me in the face.  And hit me in the nether regions.  And decide that the “nether regions” will preside over all our worlds like it did when me and Jim Hellwig (The Ultimate warrior to you peons) (Not peons, I meant to say “Ham ‘N Eggers, a Bobby Heenan term), visited “Parts Unknown” ten years ago.  In fact, on the way there we opened a Bowman Box.  Those were the days. 

From Topps’ website:

Now my account is frozen.  Because they didn’t put the codes in yet.  But that’s just the start of it…..

*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************

Part 2- “The Morning After Pill”

I pulled this yesterday.  Thought I had a GOLD MINE. (I hope I don’t sound greedy.  I am still thrilled with the pull) Doesn’t that say “a set?”  You bet.  Is that what I’m getting?  Of course not.   Only because the half retarded kid ALSO works in the “allotment department.”  (AKA- the “We Can’t Count Guy,”and  “Guy who doesn’t type in combos of numbers and letters of exchange cards prior to release.”)  Now, I am too am retarded, so I mean no harm, but c’mon guys.

My favorite blog, ToppsArchives, said this yesterday regarding the CLASSLESS move by Topps on a repeat basis:

Due to the anger produced by recent news, it wouldn’t be fair to write a review for 2011 Topps Chrome Baseball. Instead of writing a review, I’ll just look at the 2011 Topps Chrome Baseball Checklist; specifically, the autograph checklist.

Anyway, Topps doesn’t deserve any credit the way they playbait and switch (as Josh explained, no bait and switch here.  But frustration on the card misprint.  The controversy revolved around the sell sheet), but I gotta tell you this set is outright awesome.  Top autographs of Mike Pineda, Zach Britton, the enormously priced Craig Kimbrel, the low-priced for some reason Alexi Ogando, Brandon Beachy, Julio Teheran, Eric Hosmer, Freddie Freeman, and Brandon Belt consist of the best checklist for a Topps product in years.  But ASC owner Josh posted yesterday this disturbing news:

Topps is clarifying that the redemption card in the just-released 2011 Topps Chrome Baseball stating “ You have just received a set of 2011 USA Baseball Collegiate National Team Autograph Cards” is good for either a 5 or 6 card pack of USA Autographs and not all 22 subjects. (There are 2 types of redemption cards: 1 is for USA autographs, the other for non-auto USA guys….This is what the sell sheet said about the auto cards, which I confused as you’ll see….

(Sell Sheet Quote)

USA Baseball Collegiate National Team Autographs:

Collectors can look for randomly inserted redemption cards. Each card can be redeemed for a pack containing five autograph variation cards from 2011 USA Baseball Collegiate National Team members. Twenty autograph subjects in all. (22 subjects ended up on checklist)

This is what it said about EXCH cards for the NON auto USA cards:

USA Baseball Collegiate National Team Set:

Collectors can look for randomly inserted redemption cards. Each card can be redeemed for a set of 2011 USA Baseball National Collegiate Team members. numbered USA1-USA20. (I confused this with the distribution of the AUTO USA cards, which will yield just 5 autos, as this EXCH card is good for all 22 NON AUTOs)

Two things stick out here:

1) Another bait and switch by Topps on a product (My mistake)

2) The fact that the owner of an enormous marketplace is putting more emphasis on educating customers than ignoring the snafu and leaving clientele in the dark.  Its people like Josh that can change this “firestorm” as its been said.  And remember, I am NOT an employee of Atlanta Sports Cards, so I have no stake in giving the owner high praise or not.  (I do get employee discounts though.  Sometimes, its better than actual money. Mmmmmm.)  Josh Pankow, who is one of the most respected players in this industry has taken this no holds barred approach.  And his two serious competetors, or any other big wax dealer for that matter, would NEVER do that.  Too scared.  (Love this part.  Josh is the John Morrison of the Hobby)

Josh and I will spend the whole morning on the phone some days and talk Hobby.  Its some of the best banter I’ve ever been involved in.  We’ve discussed how much Topps really cares about their customers.  And we’re both beginning to wonder how much they really do. Examples from last 18 mos:

• 2010 Bowman Stephen Strasburg redmptions that took forever
• A press release the day Gypsy Queen dropped saying the 2-auto per box promise was a lie- it was 1 auto.
• A press release the day 2010 Bowman Chrome dropped saying there ould be no BRYCE HARPER autographs (whoops, huh?) Everyone is still bitter about this one
• No press release on the now inamous 2011 Bowman Platinum set that has since tanked about how the patches were mostly worth under $5, and that the stars had been crossed off the checklist- the one INSIDE THE BOX.
• The USA debacle in 2011 Topps Chrome. (Josh put it better.  Not a debacle, but a snafu, for sure)

*******************************************************************************************************************************

That’s not all: Theres a possible hobby destroying idea that the Top 10-12 NFL draftees would ONLY appear as PARALLEL autos, making the odds of pulling Newton, Locker or Mallett about 24 times harder than pulling Mark Herzelich.  Who’s gonna keep buying boxes?  I’m already DONE with EVERY Topps 2011 Football release.  Nice Cards.  But how many Jordan Todman and Roy Helu cards can I get?  Answer:  In over 45 (here I state I opened 45 boxes)Topps football brand boxes, I’ve pulled 14 Todman autos and 11 Niles Paul autos.  Cam Newton?  One dual card in Inception out of 25 . Locker: 0.  Mallett: 0.  AJ Green: 1.  Julio Jones: 0.  That’s SEVENTY BOXES. (All of a sudden its at 70!  Ha.  I meant 45 Topps boxes and 35 Panini/Leaf/Press Pass) When are collectors going to say enough is enough?  And Upper Deck?  Not much better.  In 8 Sweet Spot boxes I hit 1 Kaepernick and one Ponder.  That’s all.  More than Topps’ 0 Ponder’s and Kaepernicks though. (I did hit a Ponder Panini Prestige Auto now that I think back.)

So what’s going on?  Truth is, this concept was concieved because since Football rookies are in some 50 products a year, at years end, there are a TON of any one guy’s auto in the past.  So now, to keep “across-brand” printruns down, they SP every good player.  Upper Deck at least kept SOME players (Kaepernick, Dalton, Ponder) as non-SPs in Sweet Spot 2011.  This kill-or-be-killed strategy by Topps will KO the Football hobby.  No question. (There is a question, and Josh explains it underneath. He worked for a major card company, so he KNOWS what he’s talking about )

And if Topps keeps up this PR nightmare- I don’t care what anyone says:  This will mark the beginning of the end of Topps being a player in this Hobby.  Hard to think of that, but this is KILLING collectors, and enraging dealers (How can dealers be happy that 1/3rd of the autos were chopped from 2011 Bowman Platinum?  That’s false advertising (here’s your bait and switch) and now the product has dropped more than considerably considering what it should have been.

Its time for LEAF to step up.  They could seize the Hobby now.  (The newly announced baseball 2011 Draft Set is a MASSIVE step.  Baseball hobbyists await the arrival of this product.  Will it pack a punch?)  Panini, with their so-so cards, has to step up.  Upper Deck needs more than just great football sets.  (Anyone seen any 2011 UD Football boxes lately?  Not many, because I heard distributors can’t find anymore.)  Topps needs to stop lying.  It’s so pathetic.  They need to do away with sell sheets. 

This was supposed to be a Topps Chrome 8-box break but I’ll do that later today. 

This needed to be said.

And something, trust me, something, will be done about Topps’ awful false ads.  You can only kick sand in a dog’s face so long……Those who think that ths will be put up with?  See what happened to other companies that made mistakes:

• TriStar (bad photography)
• Press Pass (airbrushing)
• Just (who?)
• Razor (awful design)
• Donruss (they ended up as Panini, so they get a pass)
• Fleer (not enough penache)
• Wild Card (how many 1,000 count lot can you give away before supply is a tad high?)
• Pro Set (900 card sets, 100 of them had errors)

Topps isn’t immune from bad business practices.  So, yeah, 2011 Topps Chrome is a PHENOMENAL set.  Yet, everywhere I turn this morning, all anyone wants to talk about is the USA redemption stuff.  Topps:  Get going or you will Get Got.  (The Truth, The Whole Truth, and Nothing But The Truth.  Little Jimmy).

Jamie Kennedy

Follow up from Josh Pankow, the Shaman of Sexy:

Just a follow up to this.

First off, in fairness to Topps they NEVER solicited anything about these Autograph Redemptions being Sets. They were mis-printed on the redemption cards. End of story. So, this isn’t a case of bait-and-swtich. They didn’t tell people this to try and sell extra cases. Was it a major error? Absolutely. Was it a blatant error trying to get people to buy it and then replace it with something else? Absolutely NOT.

Secondly, as for the Football RCs Jamie mentioned I’d like to try and explain it. I don’t think the good RCs are any harder to get than normal. Here’s the deal. There are A LOT more hits this year than normal. That’s why there are more of the “so-so” hits. The companies can’t afford to put a ton more Newton, Ingram, Gabbert, Green, Jones, ETC. So, they have to use more of some of the lesser known guys. Hence the abundance of Taiwan Jones. The thing to remember with this is that Topps has to use the “bigger” hits wisely. They need these guys to be very plentiful in the higher end products at the end of the year. They assume they can sell Inception, Platinum and Finest without overloading them with the higher end RCs. This isn’t true in regards to products like Triple Threads and Five Star. As bas as it feels to pay $90 for a box and not get a good RC hit. It feels a lot worse when you pay $200 or $400. This is no different than any other year. If you went back and opened 70 boxes of 2010 Finest, Platinum, Elite, Prestige and Rookies & Stars you’d find the same thing. Sometimes you can open 1 box and get lucky. Sometimes you can open 70 and not so much.

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“Again?”

Part 1 – “Writing on no sleep brings out a tad of sarcasm and attempted humor”

Dear Topps….

I am a loyal customer of yours named James Kennedy.  I have been with you since I was 5 years old.  25+ years later, and I have  treasured our relationship.  I still do.  But Topps, you are raking my eyes like a Ric Flair thumb to the eye….Here is a snapshot of your site after I typed in my Chrome exchange card numbers.  “Exchange card numbers”….How f-ed up is it to even have to say all those words:

Topps’ man in the suit extolls:  “Exchange redemption card…. randomly inserted…. sometimes, at an equal rate…. sometimes, but were not telling even if that’s not the case, although the redemption exchanges WON’T be what you get…..Silly collectors……..time for a wrapper redemption throwing party!”  Their PR rivals Casey Anthony’s.

That aside though…..and I have to admit this is easily…..EASILY the best non-draft picks set to come out in ages.  (Ages.  That makes me feel old)  The break was awesome but it didnt lull for more than 2 packs in a row.  Amazing.  Parallels were added- not untastefully- led by the dreamy (OK Lorraine McFly) “Sepia Tone” refractors /99.  I dunno what Sepia Tone is but I know it makes a cool looking insert.  Half black.  Half white.  Ebony and Ivory.  Flavor Flav and Bridgette Nielsen.  Magic Johnson and any white woman.  They just go together.

So, Topps, let me get this straight.  You release the product this week.  I CLEARLY bought it AFTER the release.  For the third time in 3 products, not only do you keep people waiting forever like a baseball card DMV, now you decided, “We can’t get a half-retarded kid to type in 10 letter/number codes at some time prior to release.  My God- it feels like you repeatedly slap me in the face.  And hit me in the nether regions.  And decide that the “nether regions” will preside over all our worlds like it did when me and Jim Hellwig (The Ultimate warrior to you peons), visited “Parts Unknown” ten years ago.  In fact, on the way there we opened a Bowman Box.  Those were the days. 

From Topps’ website:

Now my account is frozen.  Because they didn’t put the codes in yet.  But that’s just the start of it…..

*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************

Part 2- “The Morning After Pill”

I pulled this yesterday.  Thought I had a GOLD MINE.  Doesn’t that say “a set?”  You bet.  Is that what I’m getting?  Of course not.   Only because the half retarded kid ALSO works in the “allotment department.”  (AKA- the “We Can’t Count Guy,”and  “Guy who doesn’t type in combos of numbers and letters of exchange cards prior to release.”)  Now, I am too am retarded, so I mean no harm, but c’mon guys.

My favorite blog, ToppsArchives, said this yesterday regarding the CLASSLESS move by Topps on a repeat basis:

Due to the anger produced by recent news, it wouldn’t be fair to write a review for 2011 Topps Chrome Baseball. Instead of writing a review, I’ll just look at the 2011 Topps Chrome Baseball Checklist; specifically, the autograph checklist.

Anyway, Topps doesn’t deserve any credit the way they play bait and switch, but I gotta tell you this set is outright awesome.  Top autographs of Mike Pineda, Zach Britton, the enormously priced Craig Kimbrel, the low-priced for some reason Alexi Ogando, Brandon Beachy, Julio Teheran, Eric Hosmer, Freddie Freeman, and Brandon Belt consist of the best checklist for a Topps product in years.  But ASC owner Josh posted yesterday this disturbing news:

Topps is clarifying that the redemption card in the just-released 2011 Topps Chrome Baseball stating “ You have just received a set of 2011 USA Baseball Collegiate National Team Autograph Cards” is good for either a 5 or 6 card pack of USA Autographs and not all 22 subjects.

All USA Autographs are incremental hits on top of the 2 on-card Rookie Autographs guaranteed per hobby box.

Two things stick out here:

1) Another bait and switch by Topps on a product

2) The fact that the owner of an enormous marketplace is putting more emphasis on educating customers than ignoring the snafu and leaving clientele in the dark.  Its people like Josh that can change this “firestorm” as its been said.  And remember, I am NOT an employee of Atlanta Sports Cards, so I have no stake in giving the owner high praise or not.  (I do get employee discounts though.  Sometimes, its better than actual money. Mmmmmm.)  Josh Pankow, who is one of the most respected players in this industry has taken this no holds barred approach.  And his two serious competetors, or any other big wax dealer for that matter, would NEVER do that.  Too scared. 

Josh and I will spend the whole morning on the phone some days and talk Hobby.  Its some of the best banter I’ve ever been involved in.  We’ve discussed how much Topps really cares about their customers.  And we’re both beginning to wonder how much they really do. Examples from last 18 mos:

• 2010 Bowman Stephen Strasburg redmptions that took forever
• A press release the day Gypsy Queen dropped saying the 2-auto per box promise was a lie- it was 1 auto.
• A press release the day 2010 Bowman Chrome dropped saying there ould be no BRYCE HARPER autographs (whoops, huh?)
• No press release on the now inamous 2011 Bowman Platinum set that has since tanked about how the patches were mostly worth under $5, and that the stars had been crossed off the checklist- the one INSIDE THE BOX.
• The USA debacle in 2011 Topps Chrome

*******************************************************************************************************************************

That’s not all: Theres a possible hobby destroying idea that the Top 10-12 NFL draftees would ONLY appear as PARALLEL autos, making the odds of pulling Newton, Locker or Mallett about 24 times harder than pulling Mark Herzelich.  Who’s gonna keep buying boxes?  I’m already DONE with EVERY Topps 2011 Football release.  Nice Cards.  But how many Jordan Todman and Roy Helu cards can I get?  Answer:  In over 45 Topps football brand boxes, I’ve pulled 14 Todman autos and 11 Niles Paul autos.  Cam Newton?  One dual card in Inception out of 25 . Locker: 0.  Mallett: 0.  AJ Green: 1.  Julio Jones: 0.  That’s SEVENTY BOXES.  When are collectors going to say enough is enough?  And Upper Deck?  Not much better.  In 8 Sweet Spot boxes I hit I Kaepernick and one Ponder.  That’s all.  More than Topps’ 0 Ponder’s and Kaepernicks though.

So what’s going on?  Truth is, this concept was concieved because since Football rookies are in some 50 products a year, at years end, there are a TON of any one guy’s auto in the past.  So now, to keep “across-brand” printruns down, they SP every good player.  Upper Deck at least kept SOME players (Kaepernick, Dalton, Ponder) as non-SPs in Sweet Spot 2011.  This kill-or-be-killed strategy by Topps will KO the Football hobby.  No question.

And if Topps keeps up this PR nightmare- I don’t care what anyone says:  This will mark the beginning of the end of Topps being a player in this Hobby.  Hard to think of that, but this is KILLING collectors, and enraging dealers (How can dealers be happy that 1/3rd of the autos were chopped from 2011 Bowman Platinum?  That’s false advertising and now the product has dropped more than considerably considering what it should have been.)

Its time for LEAF to step up.  They could seize the Hobby now.  The newly announced baseball 2011 Draft Set is a MASSIVE step.  Panini, with their so-so cards, has to step up.  Upper Deck needs more than just great football sets.  (Anyone seen any 2011 UD Football boxes lately?  Not many, because I heard distributors can’t find anymore.)  Topps needs to stop lying.  It’s so pathetic.  They need to do away with sell sheets. 

This was supposed to be a Topps Chrome 8-box break but I’ll do that later today. 

This needed to be said.

And something, trust me, something, will be done about Topps’ awful false ads.  You can only kick sand in a dog’s face so long……Those who think that ths will be put up with?  See what happened to other companies that made mistakes:

• TriStar
• Press Pass
• Just
• Razor
• Donruss
• Fleer
• Wild Card
• Pro Set

Topps isn’t immune from bad business practices.  So, yeah, 2011 Topps Chrome is a PHENOMENAL set.  Yet, everywhere I turn this morning, all anyone wants to talk about is the USA redemption stuff.  Topps:  Get going or you will Get Gone.

Jamie Kennedy

Incoming search terms:

• 2011 topps chrome wrapper redemption
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Topps is clarifying that the redemption card in the just-released 2011 Topps Chrome Baseball stating “ You have just received a set of 2011 USA Baseball Collegiate National Team Autograph Cards” is good for either a 5 or 6 card pack of USA Autographs and not all 22 subjects.

All USA Autographs are incremental hits on top of the 2 on-card Rookie Autographs guaranteed per hobby box.

USA Autographs are also featured on the following parallels:

Refractor
Blue Refractor
Gold Refractor
Atomic Refractor
Red Refractor
Superfractor
Printing Plates

Incoming search terms:

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Atlanta Sports Cards Presents “2011 Bowman DP+P”:  An Initial Look (Part 1 of 2)

Written By Jamie Kennedy

Information gathered by Josh Pankow

The adjacent card, if numbered to 99, which would complete their replication of last year’s Stephen Straburg’s Bowman nmbering, would certainly make this the toughest Harper of the 3 Bowman look-a-likes so far, but would probably still be equal in price to the unnmbered 2011 Bowman White Colored Harper Auto, and that’s because the White was released way before this green one.  But, even as it is the 3rd (and some could argue its the 4th- that the 2010 Buyback preceded it) Bowman auto released, if numbered to 99 (and no parallels- always key!), it potentially has more upside.  And Harper will be good.  People will look back, I am positive, at the prices of 2011 Bowman products (except the worst Bowman product of all time, 2011 Platinum), and be shocked at how low they were.

Josh Pankow has been keeping us to date with the list of names signed on for this set so far.  As of today, Josh had compiled these names for us:

Tyler Anderson Rockies
Javier Baez Cubs
Matt Barnes Red Sox
Trevor Bauer D’Backs
Jed Bradley Bewers
CJ Cron Angels
Kyle Crick Giants
Jose Fernandez Marlins
Michael Fulmer Mets
Tyler Goeddel Rays
Sonny Gray A’s
Larry Greene Phillies
Jake Hager Rays
James Harris Rays
Travis Harrison Twins
Taylor Jungmann Brewers
Francisco Lindor Indians
Brandon Martin Rays
Kevin Matthews Rangers
Brandon Nimmo Mets
Blake Snell Rays
George Springer Astros
Corey Spangenberg Padres
Robert Stephenson Reds
Trevor Story Rockies
Blake Swihart Red Sox
Dan Vogelbach Cubs
Keenyn Walker White Sox
Kolten Wong Cardinals
Joe Panik Giants

Bauer has been my favorite draftee even 6 months before the draft.  An amazing strikeout king, he should have went 1 in my mind and will be a much better payoff than Gerrit Cole.

Here’s some career highlights:

• In his freshman year at UCLA, Bauer recorded a 9-3 record with a 2.99 ERA, collecting 92 strikeouts in 105.1 innings.
• Bauer was a member of the USA 2009 Baseball Collegiate National Team. He was 1-1 with a 4.67 ERA in five games (three starts), 24 strikeouts, and seven walks in 17.1 innings. In 2009, he was named to the freshman All-America team by Baseball America.
• During the 2010 season, the Bruins had the best record (51-17) in school history and were the second best team in the country. The Bruins played in the 2010 College World Series and were defeated by South Carolina in the NCAA Championship Series.  Bauer went 12-3 with a 3.02 ERA, collecting 165 strikeouts in 131.1 innings. The 165 strikeouts were the best in the nation.
• In 2011, Bauer was named the Pac-10 Pitcher of the Year and to the All-Pac-10 First Team. He was also the Collegiate Baseball Newspaper’s National Player of the Year. He was named the District IX Player of the Year by the National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association (NCBWA) and College Player of the Year by Baseball America.
• In his junior year, Bauer went 13-2 with a 1.25 ERA in 16 starts. He set a nation-leading and Pac-10 single-season record of 203 strikeouts. His finished the season with nine consecutive complete games and established new records at UCLA, including 460 career strikeouts, 34 wins, 373.1 pitching innings.
• In 2010, Bauer was a finalist for the Golden Spikes Award, presented annually to the top amateur baseball player in the country by USA Baseball.  He won the award in 2011

Expect Bauer’s base card (because he has NO chrome USA auto yet, unlike Cole and Sonny Gray) to top $50 per raw, and close to $225 for a Blue.  I think he’s the best pitcher since Strasburg- bar none- and with SS’s injury, Bauer is the next Randy Johnson/Pedro Martinez superstar.  Love Him and his inclusion here.

Kolten Wong, 2b, 22nd overall pick by St. Louis

Wong has had several cards, from the old Upper Deck USA sets, to the 2010 Bowman’s very first chrome incusion of this class.  But when one looks at Kolten Wong, who has already dazzled as an 18 year old on Team USA, and is now, at the tender age of 20, hitting better than any young second baseman his age:

…is surely a force to  be reconed with.  Base autos will start at $15 and blues arouund $60.

Before I go further, the next thing that strikes me….is the exlusion of certain players.  Now, this is “Look 1 of 2″ for a reason.  Until ALL players have signed and the checklist is signed sealed, and delivered, we’re going to have to keep the jury out.  But, that said, Im concerned.  In Josh’s post, he did write:

“And Topps has 4 additional signers to announce next week!”

I’m hoping that these are big names, and that would make sense to leave the best to last, not just to build up hype for the product, but because many of these players are the toughest to sign, and signed very late in the signing widow.  Lets look at the first round, with links the MLB.com writeup of each player:

First Round

(Click on the player’s name to read full coverage of his selection.)

 If in red, they are already announced:

• 1. Gerrit Cole, RHP UCLA
• 2. Danny Hultzen, LHP Virginia
• 3. Trevor Bauer, RHP UCLA
• 4. Dylan Bundy, RHP Owasso HS
• 5. Bubba Starling, OF Gardner Edgerton HS
• 6. Anthony Rendon, 3B Rice
• 7. Archie Bradley, RHP Broken Arrow Sr HS
• 8. Francisco Lindor, SS Montverde Academy
• 9. Javier Baez, SS Arlington Country Day School
• 10. Cory Spangenberg, 2B Indian River Stat

Now, read how the guys who are still not named as signers in this set, waited until 10 mins prior to Aug 15th, to do their deals:  This explains why they havent been announced yet! (Via Baseball America:)

After weeks of waiting, a flurry of draft picks were signed in the final 10 minutes before the midnight deadline. Here is a list of the players who signed for bonuses of $500,000 or more right before the deadline—or at least, their deals were announced just before or after the buzzer.

• Righthander Gerrit Cole (No. 1 overall pick) signed with the Pirates for $8 million, the highest straight bonus in draft history.

• Lefthander Danny Hultzen (No. 2) signed a big league deal with the Mariners for $8.5 million guaranteed. His bonus is $6.35 million and the maximum value is $10.6 million.

• Righthander Dylan Bundy (No. 4) signed a big league deal with the Orioles for $6.225 million guaranteed. The bonus is $4 million.

• Outfielder Bubba Starling (No. 5) signed with the Royals for $7.5 million, which will be spread out over three years.

• Third baseman Anthony Rendon (No. 6) signed with the Nationals for a major league deal worth a guaranteed $7.2 million. The bonus is $6 million. It’s a four-year deal with an option.

• Righthander Archie Bradley (No. 7) signed with the Diamondbacks for $5 million.

•My point here is this:  Don’t look at the current Bowman commitments as any kind of list that is done.  In fact, use it to your advantage!  Now that you know how late 1-7 signed (besides Bauer), pre-buy the product where it is now!  This makes perfect business sense because when it IS annouced that Gerrit Cole, Dan Hultzen, Dylan Bundy and Bubba Starling ARE in the set, prices will move upwards, pre-sell wise.

Once more, let’s look at the Top 10 and this time comment on how big each card could be:

• 1. Gerrit Cole, RHP UCLA

Big.  $40-$70 for a base big, but not massive.  Why?  Unfortuantely he was featured on over 70 different autograph cards to date across Topps and Upper Deck.  His needed inclusion?  B+

• 2. Danny Hultzen, LHP Virginia

Hugely massive $80-$120 for a base.  Why?  He’s the youngest guy on the list (most went to college), and has 0 cards to speak of.  If he’s in here, the wax goes up 12%-15%. His need to be incuded:  A+

• 4. Dylan Bundy, RHP Owasso HS

Again, massive guy here.  second top HS pitcher, his non-auto 2010 AFLAC topped out at $99.  Reason?  He, like Hultzen have exactly 0 cards at all before the draft, with the 1 exception with Bundy being a scant, 125 total print run of AFLAC cards.  Need to be included:  B+

• 5. Bubba Starling, OF Gardner Edgerton HS

Was in last years Bowman Chrome USA auto set.  So I’d bet my bottom dollar he’s a shoe in for next week’s announcement.  Gave up being Nebraska’s starting QB a year from now to play baseball.  Quite possibly, a phenom bat a la Bryce Harper.  His base auto will command $60-$80, but would command $150 if not for having prior Bowman cards.  Need to be included:  A-

• 6. Anthony Rendon, 3B Rice

Famously in 2010-2011 Topps USA set without parallels, people are salivating for his first Bowman release.  He could raise the products presell price 7%-9% on his own. Need?  A

• 7. Archie Bradley, RHP Broken Arrow Sr HS

Deep draft that would bebefit from Bradley’s incluion. Base auto: $35.  Need?  C-

Others:

Jackie Bradley Jr:  Despite falling in the draft, he has always been a high priced guy.  Need?  D

That said, so many guys after 1,2, 4-7 are already signed.  So at ASC.com’s current price, $60.99/box has the current rating of an A for a presell.   If just 2-4 of the main 6 guys not yet there, added to the list over the next few weeks, this may be the best, comprehensive set (not watered down by EEE or anything else this year), OF ALL TIME.

Keep an eye on added guys each week.  This stuff, WILL MOVE UPWARDS, on the pre-sell market if even 1 or 2 guys get added, so especially watch Cole, Hultzen, Starling and Rendon.  Once they are announced, JUMP ALL OVER THESE pre-sells.  I have to say again, they have already signed 30 of the 1st rounders (leaving just the top guys we spoke of, really.  So if 4 more signers are next week, we can assume there will be at least 4 more after that, and people WILL realize FAST, that this is the ONLY SET THIS YEAR WITH DRAFT AUTO’s!!!!!!!!  That has NOT BEEN THE CASE SINCE 2001!!  Don’t forget UD PP started that year!)

Need more incentive?

2011 USA BASEBALL 16U NATIONAL TEAM

ADDITIONAL HIT!

HOBBY EXCLUSIVE!

18 talented USA Baseball stars showcased with their

autographs oon Bowman Chrome cards highlighted

with a “First Bowman Chrome Card” logo.

Paralleled in the following versions:

Super-Fractor: 

Printing Plates:

ONE OF ONE! Hobby Only!

 Red Refractor:

Numbered to 5

New!

Purple:

Numbered to 10

Orange Refractor

Numbered to 25

Gold Refractor:

Numbered to 50

Blue Refractor:

Numbered to 99

Refractor:

Numbered to 199

 —————————————————————–

2011 FUTURES GAME

RELIC CARDS

HOBBY EXCLUSIVE!

Including Bryce Harper Cards

Limited edition unique jersey relic cards highlighting

participants from the 2011 Futures

Game on glittering red foil board

JUMBO PATCH CARDS

Numbered to 5

Hobby Only!

“FUTURES GAME” PATCH CARDS

ONE OF ONE

ONE! Hobby Only!

MLB LOGO PATCH

ONE OF ONE! Hobby Only! 

All 110 Bowman Chrome MLB Future and USA Baseball star

subjects are paralleled:

New! Canary Diamond

ONE OF ONE! Hobby Only!

Super-Fractor: 

ONE OF ONE! Hobby Only!

And more.  Don’t mess around with waiting on this product.  I’m saying now it will be even BIGGER than 2010 Bowman.  We’ll see.  Don’t sleep on it.  I didn’t.

Talk to you more in 2 weeks about this.

Overall, so far:  A-

Overall, once signings are written in stone: A+, possible best Draft Set ever due to the fact that there is NO competition this year.  Its this set or nothing.

Upside in pre-ordering now, A++, possibly best ever

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Atlanta Sports Cards

Product Preview- 2011 Bowman Chrome Baseball

By Jamie Kennedy

When you think about past Bowman Chrome releases, as long as you leave out last year’s, you should have fond memories.  In 2001 the Albert Pujols “card of the past 2 decades was released.”  In 2002, the on-card Chrome autograph rookies solidified a new “must-have” card for any given rookie.  David Wright led the way, and at times, a non-autographed Francisco Liriano card brought $150-$200 per mint issue. (You got 8 of the 100 rookies per box).  Today, even the Jose Bautista holds on as a must-have card from 2002.  2003 brought a forgetful product, and 2004 ended up weak as well other than Felix Hernandez.  2005 saved most of the big cards for Bowman Draft.  2010 Bowman Chrome had Strasburg autos; but so did 2010 regular Bowman and Draft later that year.  2007 stuck out for its auto incusion of Tim Lincecum, and at the time, Joba Chamberlain and Fernando Martinez. 2007′s Trevor Cahill made a run this year after his 7-0 start but has since retreated. 

The issue from 2010 has been much discussed.  Overproduction led the way as everyone ordered a lot, and a lot was thus printed, during the Strasburg Era.  The product was supposed to have Buybacks from the earlier Bowman issue that would have had Bryce Harper’s first chrome auto.  This, although promised by Topps, was never included, and redemption packs were given per every box of wrappers you sent in.  That wasn’t fun on the whole, as most packs had black bordered afterthoughts.  Topps must have learned their lesson, as 2011 Bowman was not mass produced despite similar pre-release demand.  I’d imagine 2011 Bowman should be a much shorter print than 2010, which sells way below what other years do, and probably under cost.

The current checklist of rookies includes 2 groups:

1. (RC) Logo Autographs of players which already reached the majors, and
2. Prospect Autos of players that are still in the minors.

The players that have have made the majors, that are on the current checklist, that I am excited to see in any product, are:

That’s it.  But his 2008 Razor isues are so high, this card may start out at $50-$70 per base chrome.  Yep, it will be in that high of demand.  The only other Major Leaguers I’m mildly excited about, are:

And he’s had a rough year.  I’ll tell you who I’d be surprised (although most are in Topps Chrome) if they DIDN’T make it on the final checklist:

1) Eric Hosmer (who may have been added already)

2) Jose Altuve (who has a non-auto in 2010 Bowman but JUST got called up weeks ago)

3) Michael Pineda (has a non-auto in 2009 BC)

4) Danny Espinosa (ROY potential along with Freeman and Kimbrel)

5) Zach Britton (in 08 BC and 07 EEE)

For now though, these cards are not on the checklist.  There’s time though, and “subject to change” has been a way of life for Topps lately. 

The Good: Plenty of prospects are here though that don’t have chrome autos in previous Bowman products.  My favorites:

Not much needed to say about this.  Base cards should run $200-$250, with Blue Refractors commanding $750 or more.

A 2010 EEE guy, he is still very young and talented besides a weak year.  This card, in Blue Refractor version, should command $60-$70.

A 2010 Bowman Platinum guy who makes his Bowman debut.  Was among the Minors ERA leaders this year and is a bonafide prospect.  Blue Refractors should start at about $65-$75.

The Cubbies #1 or #2 preseason prospect, McNutt battled injuries through 21 starts, and put up miserable numbers.  Last year though he had a 37 BB/132 K rate in 116 innings and won 10 games.  Just 21 years old, he could still return to last year’s form where he posted a .217 average against, and and an ERA of 2.48.  Blue Autos will start in the $40-$50 range.

The Red-Sox early draft pick in 2010 had an ERA just under 4.00, and had 113 Ks in 122 innings, while walking 44. He showed flashes of brilliance over 2 A ball stops, but did not justify the 5+ million dollar bonus he got from the Sox; the only reason he wasn’t a Top 5 pick in 2010. He turns 21 this month, so there’s plenty of development still expected.

Banuelos was so hot in the offseason as the Yankees’ top prospect, his lone auto, a TriStar release in 2010, was selling for $60 a pop.  Times have changed.  For some reason, beyond my understanding, Banuelos interest waned, despite the fact that having just turned 20, he pitched in AA and AAA very well.  With a modest 66BB/124 K ratio over 128 innnings, his ERA was 3.59 in 21 starts at AA, but just 3.03 in 6 AAA starts.  With a .264 BA against, some feel he is too hittable to be mentioned in the same breath as Julio Teheran or Matt Moore.  That may be.  But Banuelos is younger, more raw, and plays for the Yankees, a major factor.  His base should open at $25 to $30 and Blues should run near $100 at release.  2007 Bowman Chrome’s Dellin Betances isn’t much older and is probably the better Yankee pitcher in terms of pure ROI.

Up and down prospect acquired in the Garza trade, Archer’s main weakness is control, walking 85 to 124 Ks in 140.1 innings.  A fireballer with a 2010 Bowman Platinum Exchange Bonus Auto, he just turned 23, so time is running out here.  Blues should only hit $35 at this point.

He’s a stud 20 year old for the Tigers organization.  3.44 ERA over 20 AA and AAA starts.  This card will do $30 for a base, and $100 for a blue.

Born in 1992, he had a 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio in 19 A-level Sally League games.  Nice sleeper.  Blues will be nice pickups at $38-$45

Eovaldi should be the best pickup in the set.  At just 21, he did well in AA, with a sub 3 ERA and a decent K/BB ratio.  Blue Refractors should only cost $30-$40

Great story in Low-A Midwest League with a 2.30 ERA and a .219 BA against in 23 starts.  Another great sleeper: he was born in 7/91, and was a 2nd round draft pick for the Dodgers in 2009.

Best known for having Magic Johnson’s auto on his Elite 2010 card, he dialed in a 1.87 ERA in his first season, but only 5 of his 30+ appearances, were starts.

What else?

Just more Bowman’s Best cards; not sure how much Bryce will bring since this is version 2.0.

A very cool die-cut insert.  BC Futures has a nice checklist.

Forecast:

Will it be a good item to pre-buy?  At $62/box, there’s too much variety in the auto set compared to last year’s (a good thing), and too many Harper items that could make breaking the product worth it (another good thing.)

USA auto’s will be represented, although they are TBA’s on the checklist, these will be well sought after.

The non-auto cards are well represented as well.  Nick Castellanos, Harper (non-auto), and several others will keep it from being a 1 hit per box rip.

Should you pre-buy it?  I can’t see it being less than $60.  So the answer is yes, and I’ll give it an A-.

(That represents pre-sell price compared to what it will be.  If I gave it a D, it would be an item NOT to pre-buy.)

Autos- Plenty on the checklist, with TBA’s certainly to add value (like Hosmer).  The USA’s are a HUGE bonus, and that will prove true in years to come.  Harper makes it great:  A

Inserts- Bowman is having a great 2 years of inserts: the Topps 100 insert in 2011 Bowman sells over-Beckett per 100 card set.  These, especially the 2001 throwbacks, should follow suit.  A

Overall- Bowman is back on track, and unless this is over-produced, which I doubt, but cannot be sure of, looks like a long-term winner: A

COMING TOMORROW:

2011 Panini Timeless Treasures

 Football Box PREVIEW!

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Atlanta Sports Cards Presents: “The State of the Hobby Address, Sunday August 28th, 2011″

ASC.com is the only retail site where not only can you get whatever wax you could want, and sometimes incredible memoribila, and also be treated like you’re the most important customer in the world, and at the same time, know that the site owner has the cojones to write reviews and recommnedations, good or bad, for the exact product we have in stock!  Some rival sites will post a message board, but it is treated as completely independent from the company owners.  Many of you may say, “Jamie, you are just a glorified Message Board blog writer!” I disagree wholeheartedly.  This last year writing for Josh at ASC was not an overnight event that happened one day.  It has evolved into a team effort resulting in a blog that has proved it has some of the most important, behind the scenes information of any blog on the ‘net.  The response we get from Facebook is proof positive.  But, because I am lucky enough to be able to pick ASC owner Josh P’s brain for hours on end sometimes, I am able to convey to the reader what I see and relate it to my 25 years in the hobby and also what Josh sees. Which is like seeing behind the Wizard of Oz’ curtain. 

Personally, I check this blog right away when I sign on….only after a) I have checked the Baseball America Hot Sheet:(http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-hot-sheet/2011/2612257.html) and the chat that accompanies it (the last one was published this last Friday afternoon as the minor league season winds down), and b) Kevin Goldstein’s daily minor league recaps, and on Mondays, his Monday Morning “Ten Pack.”  But, like many outlets, “the best things in life are free” does not ring true over at Baseball Prospectus.com, as I spend $100 a year just to read Mr. Goldstein’s ruminations.  But to me they’re well worth it.  Baseball America is free only for about 10% of their content, so instead of spending good money to read “okay” articles (when Kevin Goldstein, the Editor-In-Chief, left in 2007/2008, BA.com got markedly worse, which makes sense to me as a fellow writer, as its all about the specific people writing on the website.  Kevin brought a TON of readers to Baseball Prospectus when he left Baseball America), I only use their free parts (at Baseball America), which luckily includes the weekly Hot Sheet.  Both websites will be out of season in the next 7 days. 

So, will Atlanta Sports Cards’ blog, which concentrated on baseball in particular these last 6 months, go out of season??  Not a chance!!  The new hot sheet here at Atlantasportscards.com has been unveiled and now includes the top moving Ebay individual cards of any sport that is currently in season.  So you will notice that Football Cards have been added to the most recent Top 20: http://atlantasportscards.com/blog/2011/08/25/atlanta-sports-cards-presents-brand-new-weekly-hobby-hot-sheet-top-20-cards/

You will notice, because baseball now extends into November, and Winter Leagues/The Arizona Fall League and offeseason moves keep plenty of “Hot Stove” action on baseball cards, baseball will always chart on the Hot Sheet.  Football will last all of the preseason, and will only wrap up appearances after the Super Bowl has ended, and the winning team’s stud players have finally ceased to move any higher.  And if there are certain cards that increase in the offseason, those will now be aknowledged.  Hockey and Basketball will also be added, starting with the two sports respective preseasons.  And other sports, such boxing, MMA, sports entertainment (i.e.- WWE/TNA cards), and any other sport (such as tennis or golf), that either a) has their own specific release, or b) is released within a set with a wide array of different sports autos (such as Allen & Ginter), will now also be included.

This card, which just sold at $40, was a recommened buy when he started to become the focus of the WWE 2 months ago.  Anyone picking up this WWE relic auto made 400%.  Not bad.  The “Money Where my Mouth Is” columns highlighted MANY high gainers, such as 2010 Sterling Black Refractor Autos of Red Sox wunderkind Ryan Lavarnway, which, if bought at the then Ebay price of under $60, would now see another 400% gain, as there has been just 1 on Ebay in 30 days,  Price?  $250

The end of the baseball season will also free up time to mention things like what’s going on in the world (I’m kidding!  Its a sports card blog)  But this picture (which I took at my next door neighbor’s house 3 hours ago)

now has a home besides my desktop!  Many don’t know, but have found out as we’ve spoken over the phone during my 8 months of writing at ASC.com, that I live a thousand miles from ASC HQ’s in Atlanta (I reside in Cape Cod, MA, and Naples FL in the winter)!  This picture shows a tree uprooted earlier today, during Tropical Storm Irene, which barely touched us!  Residual gusts of winds no higher than 40mph caused this! 

I made a living  a few years ago inventing an internal auditing business, where I would keep Waste and Recycling companies, renowned for ripping people off, in-check, for Fortune 500 companies, which started at Staples HQ in Framingham MA, and now serves over 80 of the Fortune 500 companies.  I was the best at making sure my clients were not getting ripped off.  I am taking this crusade to the baseball card companies, which, in many cases, do unscrupulous things.  My dissection of 2011 Bowman Platinum and they’re hatchet job of the checklist was widely read.  Did the owner of this company object to my “whistleblowing,” despite selling the same major-release product I reamed?  The answer is, no, he didn’t, which means if you are an ASC customer, you know that the most honest, no-nonsense guy will take care of you, and never push “clearance” items on you like they were essential buys.  (BPP anyone?) 

Many that follow this blog has seen my many references to, our outright articles devoted to, redemption cards starting to overrun each and every Topps release.  I vow, with the blessing of the owner of this progressive company (Josh Pankow), to make sure his customers never have the shades pulled over their eyes.  Whether its a “day-of-release” case break, or grading out future releases’ checklists, we want to have the smartest customers in the world, and like Waste Management (who keeps customers in the dark about how to save money), the other big trading card wholesale websites would also like to keep you in the dark.  Let’s be honest, not all products are hits, but online-retailers don’t want you to know that.  We are going to attack that stigma going forward here in 2011 and beyond…..

(I think this is one of just of 2 Topps Inception Football’s exchange cards…..Of course, I had to pull it.)

***********************************************************

The baseball card market usually hits its peak in June/July, and then trails off starting in September, at least as far as single cards are concerned.  New baseball products yet to be released will thrive or wither depending on how good, and more importantly, how short supplied that product is.  Gypsy Queen sits at $190/box, a 300% gain in just a few months since its release.  2011 Topps Tribute (nice catch JP!) baseball doubled in price, and anyone who didnt rip their wax, cleaned house on unopened sales soon after release.

It is literally impossible to break even if you buy a bunch of Gypsy Queen boxes at $190 apiece.  While some of the low #d cards have held some value, the current box price doesn’t make sense.  In a way, trading-card economics don’t make sense.  What we have here is your classic stalemate: Sellers are asking in excess of $200 for Gypsy Queen, because it is so scarce at this point and they’re probably in to it for close to that.  Now, the collector is intrigued that this product is rising in value, but because this collector is educated, he knows that he will never make out on breaking a case, let’s say, and thus won’t pay the $190-$230 a box going rate.  So the 2 parties agree to disagree.  This is happening now with Gypsy.

So when does one know that a “stalemate” is in effect?  The best way is to use a AUCTION : BUY IT NOW ratio.  Type in the name of the product in Ebay: (2011 Gypsy Queen), and then seperate them into “Auctions” (of which there are currently 908) and compare that to “Buy it Nows” (of which there are 10,882).  Divide 10882 by 908 and you come up with a 12:1 ratio.  Think about what that says:  Buy it Nows are used ONLY when a seller knows that putting a card up for auction may not bring the desired amount.  By using “Buy it Nows.” a dealer is saying “I will take $500 for a Koufax GQ auto, but not much less.”  This is smart because in the last week, Koufax GQ autos have ranged from $325 to $500 at auction.  Instead of taking that chance that yours will go for $325, knowing $500 is also reasonable, you use a Buy It Now.  But when BIN/Auction ratios get high like at 12:1, this stalemate or “gridlock” has occurred.

Let’s look at a product with a ratio lower than 12:1.  When typing in “2011 Inception,” I get approx 2000 Buy It Nows, and amazingly 2000 auction only items.  This is a 1:1 ratio.  What does this tell us?  It tells us that just as many dealers or sellers are “taking a chance” that they will get top dollar for their card than there are sellers who feel the need to use Buy It Now, because essentially they fear if it goes to auction, it will not bring as much as they’d like.  Inception, a popular, recent Football release, will have low ratios by nature, because there are enough people in a 7 day span to have the auction get as high as it should.  Gypsy Queen, with its predominantly “Buy it Now” listings, shows that there is a big difference between individual card/box/case value, and what people are willing to pay.

So why again is Gypsy so high?  And this is vitally important: Low supply.  The sell sheet looked blah, the checklist looked even more blah, and the cards were the color of sour milk.  So dealers, and thus distributors, didn’t order any.  So Topps didn’t produce any.  And, the final result is what is impossible to understand:  A mediocre product that no one really wants to buy is the biggest wax gainer of the year on a percentage basis.

So is it possible to predict if a product would be good?  The answer is yes and no, but you have to grasp the dichotomy that exists here.  If a product looks weak, dealers will err on the side or NOT ordering it, due to the fact that they will lose money if they are right and the product doesn’t sell.  But if one thinks contrarily, they will order the product they don’t like for sole reason that they believe no one will order it, replicating a Gypsy Queen phenomenon.  I spoke with Josh the day of release of Gypsy, and asked if he had a certain amount of boxes for sale, despite the fact that myself, like everyone else, didn’t pre-order it.  Josh said that morning, without having cracked any or having watched anyone crack GQ that this product would explode (Of course it did in the short AND long terms).  How could he know?  Easy.  It didn’t matter to him what was in there, all that mattered was that it was quite evident to him, that barely ANY of this product existed, despite being a fairly mainstream Topps release.  Which brings us to today.  Sure GQ wax is over $200/box (cost neared $70 I believe).  But the amount of single cards actually selling, pales in comparison with the amount available.  This is the 12:1 ratio.  If you wish to get the most for your cards, check the Ebay ratio I described…If its close to 1:1, you will likely get full value at auction.  Anything higher than that means you may have to sit on certain singles to move them.  Neither proves anything about a product’s long term value; instead, it looks at how liquid the product is at the present time.

**************************************************************

The happy medium here is that you evaluate a product before release, the bottom line is simply that if you like the product and the design and the checklist, you now considering pre-ordering the product.  2011 Topps Inception Football was absolutely not talked about before release.  With nothing to compare it to, it seemed like a crapshoot, although it seems, and I don’t have data to back this up, like Topps products are holding their value/increasing in value this year at a higher rate than Panini, Upper Deck (who seems to be content to wind down their hobby presence, that used to be so omnipresent), and certainly Sage and Press Pass and Tristar.  Which leaves Leaf, who is about to drop a Family Guy product that should certainly benefit from the show’s incredibly wide demographic.  This should help Leaf’s reputation even further, as they are making baby steps in an effort to be the next impact card manufacturer.

Each day this week we will preview an upcoming product.  Not just reading the sell sheet, which is basically what your dealer would regurgitate to you at a show (“4 hits, 1 guaranteed auto,”) but getting down and dirty by examining the checklist and any known pack odds, and looking for innovative measures like including new players yet to have autos (Hosmer in Topps Chrome was great, welcome news to me), while speculating on print runs and possible hobby hype.

Stick with us here at ASC.  We won’t let you down.  The biggest difference between ASC and any other company, is that Josh prides himself on Customer Service, the lowest prices in the world, and not playing favorites with manufacturers by allowing op-ed pieces written on his webpage.  This, and constant new innovations, like a new, meaty blog this year, and trying new things like case breaks, plus things in the works for the future, make this the ONLY company in the WORLD I would want to share my opinions on.  I guess I am that blessed. 

Thanks Josh, and members of ASC Nation.  It will always be my pleasure.  See you next week,

Jamie Kennedy

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